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  1. The latest poll in the Sydney seat of Wentworth has independent Dr Kerryn Phelps winning the seat on 55.4 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote, ahead of the Liberals' (conservative) Dave Sharma. The seat is having a by-election next weekend on 20 October following the shock resignation of former PM and Wentworth Liberal member, Malcolm Turnbull. On primary votes, Sharma is sitting on 38.8 per cent, with Phelps on 23.5 per cent and Labor's Tim Murray polling 17.2 per cent. The poll had a three point margin of error and was based on a small sample. https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-disagrees-with-son-on-sharma-pm/news-story/b5fbc921deebdb0a431b9e893db12562 Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull held this seat with a massive 17% margin at the 2016 election. It has never been out of 'conservative hands'. It's also one of Australia's most progressive seats, with more gays living in it than anywhere else in the country alongside Australia's biggest concentration of Jews and an unusually high percentage of voters wanting action on climate change. Enter independent Dr Kerryn Phelps who's gay, Jewish, a small business owner and a climate change belieber. Dyed-in-the-wool Liberal-voting Wentworthians were shocked when 'our Malcolm' was dumped as PM by the Liberal Party and ScoMo installed. Many want to send a protest 'vote' to the Liberal Party of Australia. Phelpsy's it. Labor can't win and neither can the Greens. To win, Phelps has to be in second place on the first round counting of primary votes ahead of Labor. The plan, created by Labor strategist Darrin Barnett whom Phelpsy hired mid-campaign, is that after preferences are distributed, Phelpsy will leapfrog Sharma on a two-party preferred basis and wrest this seat off the conservatives for the first time since the seat was established in 1900. To make it easier for rusted-on Liberals to vote for Phelpsy, she's preferenced the Liberals over Labor. So if Labor's in second place on first preferences, Sharma will bolt in if people who voted for Phelpsy preferenced Liberal over Labor as per her 'How-to-Vote-Card': Unfortunately the Greens, 'Science Party', Australian Liberty Alliance and Australian People's Party have preferenced Labor over Phelps on their "How-to-Vote-Cards" which won't help in getting a winning candidate over the magic 50% mark when preferences are distributed assuming Phelps is in second place after the first count. Confused? Let's look at how the preferences were distributed in the last Wentworth election back in 2016: Note that in the table above when the Greens' candidate's preferences were distributed on the seventh allocation of preferences giving 11,197 preference votes to Labor (78% of Greens' voters preferenced Labor over the rest of the field). Surprisingly, 3,072 Greens' voters preferenced the Liberals over Labor in that election I hope voters think about what they're doing this time. Right-wing snark, Joe Hildebrand nearly explains it correctly here: https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/joe-hildebrand-the-incredibly-dumb-blunder-that-could-decide-expm-malcolm-turnbulls-seat/news-story/8c41672a121356bcef4edfa1e6a3122a The Liberals have resorted to scary-bizarre letterbox propaganda: Phelpsy made a rookie mistake early on in the campaign confusing preferences with preference, flipflopping with a half-pike twist. Pity. I spoke with Labor's Tim Murray after I voted early last week. It's clear Labor's running dead from what he couldn't tell me! All Labor wants is an "anyone but Liberal" result so they can bash ScoMo's so-called new-found credibility and forge a bigger win in the General Election next year (or earlier!) The Greens bloke campaigning at the early-voting-centre at the Margaret Whitlam Recreation Centre was very helpful and confirmed what Hildebrand said in his piece, but he hated Joe with a passion! He also didn't agree with how the Greens preferenced and couldn't understand how they worked it out. Other developments: Former Liberal party leader, Wentworthian and climate change campaigner John Hewson has urged people not to vote Liberal 'this time' Malcolm Turnbull's son, Alex, also urged people not to vote Liberal Malcolm allegedly supported Sharma's nomination for Wentworth (but has been leaking to the media causing ScoMo hassles, like Ruddock's 'secret' religious freedom report) Anthony Green think the Liberals will hold on (bugger) I don't think Billy-Bob Shorten has set foot in the electorate to press the flesh because he knows he shouldn't as the majority of clear -thinking Australians don't think much of him either Other info: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-29/malcolm-turnbulls-personal-popularity-looms-large-in-wentworth/10174242 Old pub test: https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/14/2018/1536904013/pub-test-wentworth
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