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Snorky

Conservatives set to lose Wentworth and majority government

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The latest poll in the Sydney seat of Wentworth has independent Dr Kerryn Phelps winning the seat on 55.4 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote, ahead of the Liberals' (conservative) Dave Sharma.

The seat is having a by-election next weekend on 20 October following the shock resignation of former PM and Wentworth Liberal member, Malcolm Turnbull.

On primary votes, Sharma is sitting on 38.8 per cent, with Phelps on 23.5 per cent and Labor's Tim Murray polling 17.2 per cent. The poll had a three point margin of error and was based on a small sample.

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-disagrees-with-son-on-sharma-pm/news-story/b5fbc921deebdb0a431b9e893db12562

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull held this seat with a massive 17% margin at the 2016 election. It has never been out of 'conservative hands'.

It's also one of Australia's most progressive seats, with more gays living in it than anywhere else in the country alongside Australia's biggest concentration of Jews and an unusually high percentage of voters wanting action on climate change.

Enter independent Dr Kerryn Phelps who's gay, Jewish, a small business owner and a climate change belieber.

Dyed-in-the-wool Liberal-voting Wentworthians were shocked when 'our Malcolm' was dumped as PM by the Liberal Party and ScoMo installed.

Many want to send a protest 'vote' to the Liberal Party of Australia. Phelpsy's it.

Labor can't win and neither can the Greens.

To win, Phelps has to be in second place on the first round counting of primary votes ahead of Labor.

The plan, created by Labor strategist Darrin Barnett whom Phelpsy hired mid-campaign, is that after preferences are distributed, Phelpsy will leapfrog Sharma on a two-party preferred basis and wrest this seat off the conservatives for the first time since the seat was established in 1900.

To make it easier for rusted-on Liberals to vote for Phelpsy, she's preferenced the Liberals over Labor. So if Labor's in second place on first preferences, Sharma will bolt in if people who voted for Phelpsy preferenced Liberal over Labor as per her 'How-to-Vote-Card':

WENT_HTV_Phelps.jpg


Unfortunately the Greens, 'Science Party', Australian Liberty Alliance and Australian People's Party have preferenced Labor over Phelps on their "How-to-Vote-Cards" which won't help in getting a winning candidate over the magic 50% mark when preferences are distributed assuming Phelps is in second place after the first count.

Confused? Let's look at how the preferences were distributed in the last Wentworth election back in 2016:

full%20preference%20count_zpsvotdh1tl.jp

Note that in the table above when the Greens' candidate's preferences were distributed on the seventh allocation of preferences giving 11,197 preference votes to Labor (78% of Greens' voters preferenced Labor over the rest of the field). Surprisingly, 3,072 Greens' voters preferenced the Liberals over Labor in that election :huh:

I hope voters think about what they're doing this time.

Right-wing snark, Joe Hildebrand nearly explains it correctly here: https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/joe-hildebrand-the-incredibly-dumb-blunder-that-could-decide-expm-malcolm-turnbulls-seat/news-story/8c41672a121356bcef4edfa1e6a3122a

 

The Liberals have resorted to scary-bizarre letterbox propaganda:

phelpsy_zpslnxe4ymf.jpg

 

Phelpsy made a rookie mistake early on in the campaign confusing preferences with preference, flipflopping with a half-pike twist. Pity.

 

I spoke with Labor's Tim Murray after I voted early last week. It's clear Labor's running dead from what he couldn't tell me! All Labor wants is an "anyone but Liberal" result so they can bash ScoMo's so-called new-found credibility and forge a bigger win in the General Election next year (or earlier!)

The Greens bloke campaigning at the early-voting-centre at the Margaret Whitlam Recreation Centre was very helpful and confirmed what Hildebrand said in his piece, but he hated Joe with a passion! He also didn't agree with how the Greens preferenced and couldn't understand how they worked it out.

Other developments:

  • Former Liberal party leader, Wentworthian and climate change campaigner John Hewson has urged people not to vote Liberal 'this time'
  • Malcolm Turnbull's son, Alex, also urged people not to vote Liberal
  • Malcolm allegedly supported Sharma's nomination for Wentworth (but has been leaking to the media causing ScoMo hassles, like Ruddock's 'secret' religious freedom report)
  • Anthony Green think the Liberals will hold on (bugger)
  • I don't think Billy-Bob Shorten has set foot in the electorate to press the flesh because he knows he shouldn't as the majority of clear -thinking Australians don't think much of him either

Other info:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-29/malcolm-turnbulls-personal-popularity-looms-large-in-wentworth/10174242

Old pub test: https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/14/2018/1536904013/pub-test-wentworth

Edited by Snorky

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Surprisingly, 3,072 Greens' voters preferenced the Liberals over Labor in that election :huh:

Tree tories. Back when I worked some Greens booths there were always people who took the Green and Liberal HTVs. Nowadays they're apparently quite vocal on social media. I've kept out of all that.

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One relatively hopeful thing I'm getting from this is that even (misguided) Liberal supporters are realising that religious fundamenta

lists are trying to take over the party, apparently now even supplanting the IPA.

While it would be satisfying to see Morrison get a kick up the backside, I think Anthony Green is probably right.

 

Can I now descend into uncharacteristic vulgarity: Fuck the Big End of Town!

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I say Moomby, that's a bit fruity!

Far better outcomes are achieved if one fucks with the big end of town (the Champagne's top shelf to boot).

Not since 1066 can I recall such a battle unfolding . . .

Battle%20for%20Wenty_zpsdsaursxf.jpg

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/candidates-face-off-days-out-from-the-crucial-wentworth-byelection-20181015-p509o8.html#comments

 

All this one-hour LIVE debate revealed is that Sharma isn't a Liberal and the issues he allegedly believes in are
are at odds with the party of which he is a member.

Phelpsy did well as did Kanak and Murray.

Perky independent Licia Heath is the dark horse. She's pulling about 9% of the vote if the polls can be believed. Votes that Phelpsy needs. I noted that prior to the debate starting, Phelpsy shook hands with all other participants except Licia.

Licia is a Clover Moore spoiler designed to diminish Phelpsy's primary vote. Phelpsy loathes Clover and vice versa. And they say men are bad!

SMH%20Visentin%20debate_zpsmzr4mcek.jpg

 

Alexandra Smith, the Herald's State Political editor is to the right of Licia (seated). To her right (standing) is Herald Editor Lisa Davies.

That dark horse Licia who's cruelling Phelpsy's chances of winning is not really Wentworthy:

wentworthy_zpsnm7mhryk.jpg

 

Here she is on the dining room table making a very nice meal of explaining how preferences are allocated:



Crikey, bravo Lissia. Now do the honorable thing and withdraw and give Phelpsy a rails' run to the winners' circle.

Wentworthy :icon_mrgreen: Edited by Snorky

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ScoMo thinks it would now be a good time to have a conversation about moving our embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a-llah USA.

 

Penny Wong wondered if there was nothing this Government would do to hold on to Wentworth.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-16/australia-could-move-embassy-to-jerusalem/10379602

 

ScoMo channels Forest Gump and reckons Wentworth is like a box of chocolates: https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5848750663001

 

Sharri Markson stirs the Jewish question, Billy-Bob's absence, a new Labor attack ad and other grist: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1051766933383569409

Edited by Snorky

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In other parliamentary developments the motion that it's not okay to be non white was narrowly defeated.

 

...oh sorry, that should have read " it's okay to be white".

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According to Mathias 'my-great-uncle-was-not-a-Nazi-concentration-camp-commander' Cormann, it was an admin error. Lucky we don't have nukes, cos someone could get hurt.

 

oopsie_zpszueeuhfv.jpg

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-blames-admin-error-for-regrettable-decision-to-support-it-s-ok-to-be-white-motion-20181016-p509v9.html

 

Lauren Southern wore it well on her tour here recently, but.

 

 

scomo%20opportunist_zpsdjpyaguo.jpg

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-accused-of-cynical-reckless-politics-following-israel-move-20181016-p509um.html

 

Many Jewish people I know detest Israel and all its associated shenanigans, so I'm not sure how appealing the discussion we had to have about this will appeal to so-called Wentworthian progressive Jews.

 

It's all unravelling at a terrific pace. More please.

Much like Le Romain which carried my wager into a fourth place loss in The Everest last Saturday after shortening from $17 to $9 due to the rain. Went to a photo, nearly got third, bastard.

Edited by Snorky

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I know Scummo is our Prime Minister now, but I really don't feel like it's true. The government just seems like a kindergarten class with no one in charge.

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I know what you mean Lise.

But ScoMo's a dead man walking, mightily affected by that poisoned chalice he so readily accepted.

 

The dead man talking (Shorten) is expected to easily win next year's national election according to the margins currently on show.

ScoMo and the Libs seem to be jettisoning certain policies to bring them leftwards to Labor and therefore make the choice harder.

In doing so, all he's doing is upsetting the fundie-righters and rusted-on Liberal voters who have no clue what Liberal means anymore.

It's no way to run a government as you say, but ScoMo doesn't want to be known for taking over from Trumble, leading the Libs over the cliff in the election disaster and being turfed out as leader by an unruly Liberal Party a couple of months post-election.

All that "I'm a daggy-dad who likes football, meat pies and 'olden cars" is surely designed to endear him long term, get him past the election loss and rebuild the Liberal Party before they sink the knife into him.

In respect of Wentworth, don't be surprised if Labor comes from behind to win the by-election several days/weeks later after postals are counted, even though Liberal Party polling seems to suggest Phelpsy has it in the bag (which might mean the Liberals leaked the polling to The Australian so the rusted-ons can stop the carnage on Saturday by NOT registering a protest vote for Phelpsy, Murray or Lissia.)

phelpsy%20polling_zpsjaaa8vsd.jpg

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kerryn-phelps-to-trounce-liberals-in-wentworth-party-polling-shows/news-story/04a7ff7057c9172fd99d055294a37696

Quote: “We are being killed by the expectation [we will win it],” one Liberal said last night.

:icon_lol: :icon_eek: :o :angry:

 

 

Transcript:

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is set for victory over the Morrison government in the Wentworth by-election this Saturday, as Liberal Party polling shows the former Australian Medical Association president ahead of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

 

The polling, leaked to The Australian, also shows 75 per cent of those in the seat believe the government will retain it.

 

“We are being killed by the expectation (we will win it),” one Liberal said last night.

 

Defeat in Wentworth would mean the Morrison government lost its one-seat majority and have to rely on the support of independents to govern.

When the Liberals polled the seat in Sydney’s eastern suburbs last week, Dr Phelps was a fraction of a percentage point ahead.

It is understood that the latest polling had Mr Sharma polling in the mid-30s on primary votes and Dr Phelps well into the 20s, clearly ahead of Labor. Dr Phelps must finish second to secure the seat as Labor is regarded as being unable to win due to the independent directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of Labor on her how-to-vote card.
Not helping Mr Sharma is the fact that former prime minister and previous member Malcolm Turnbull will not do a robocall or send a letter supporting Mr Sharma ahead of Saturday’s by-election.

Instead, Mr Turnbull’s former deputy Julie Bishop has been rolled out to give Mr Sharma support. In a robocall to residents of Wentworth, Ms Bishop said she worked with Mr Sharma when he was a diplomat and he would make a great MP. “I know some may have concerns about recent political events. I believe Dave Sharma will be part of the solution,” Ms Bishop says in the call.
“I’m supporting Dave Sharma as our candidate for the seat of Wentworth. When I was foreign minister, I got to know Dave Sharma well. He was a champion for Australia’s interests when he served overseas as a diplomat, -including as our ambassador to ¬Israel. Dave would bring a unique set of skills to the parliament and be a real asset.
“He knows how to bring people together and work in the interests of Australia. He will be a champion for the people of Wentworth, as he was a champion for the people of Australia.”
The NSW Liberal Party had been hopeful Mr Turnbull would help Mr Sharma at the end of his campaign in some way, but Liberal sources have confirmed the former prime minister intends to watch from New York while the by-election takes place without helping. The only intervention Mr Turnbull made was during the preselection where he urged Mr Sharma to stay the course even though Scott Morrison was backing Katherine O’Regan.
On September 13, Mr Turnbull tweeted: “Congratulations from Lucy and me to @DaveSharma — new Liberal candidate for Wentworth. As a diplomat, Dave has represented Australia magnificently overseas, and now if elected will make a great contribution in our national parliament.”
Mr Turnbull’s son, Alex, then posted a Facebook message urging against a Liberal vote in the seat. He urged voters to “send a signal about which way the Liberal Party is going and your displeasure at where it is going’’.
Dr Phelps, meanwhile, is being accused of having breached electoral laws in Wentworth because her social media accounts are not authorised and she has put up more than 500 posts.
From March 15, new authorisation requirements were introduced by the Australian Electoral Commission to cover a broad range of communication that includes an “electoral matter”.
In the case of social media, the specific requirements are that either each communication is to be authorised at the end of the communication, or for the social media account is to be authorised in the bio/about section of the account.
Since announcing her candidacy on September 16, Dr Phelps has posted, shared or retweeted from her accounts 92 times from Facebook, 474 times from Twitter and eight times from Instagram without the authorisation.
Her spokesman declined to comment on the matter yesterday.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kerryn-phelps-to-trounce-liberals-in-wentworth-party-polling-shows/news-story/04a7ff7057c9172fd99d055294a37696



Edited by Snorky

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Morrison does have a way of making pronouncements as if they were self evidently reasonable. Actually, that's one of the things that irritates me about him, as well as the "daggy dad", etc routine.

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A beautiful set of numbers . . .

wentworth%20market%202_zpsppg4twqw.jpg

 

The odds above are from the lads at Ladbrokes. BetEasy has the Libs at $2.12 So is the swing really on?

Go you good thing, err-ahh I mean Phelpsy (Independent) of course. Not Lissia, Angela or Bob Katter's dropkick drongo of a candidate.

Here's the form guide courtesy of The Voters' Choice project (not the polling conducted by the Liberal Party):

form%20guide%201_zpsnl7nf8hg.jpg

 

https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-the-wentworth-by-election-quick-poll/

 

 

Dpqa3IhXoAAgLc-.jpg

Edited by Snorky

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I say, that's just not cricket . . .

phelpsy%20attack_zps6ldkoqpw.jpg

 

 

 

Missing ya already Malcolm . . .

 

 

selfie%20malcolm_zps3punuoq9.jpg

 

 

 

And here's Johnny-come-lately to save the day . . .

 

howard_zps0ruc6aku.jpg

 

 

 

Too late Johnny, they've lost the plot . . .

 

barnaby%20a1_zpsdqtncdnv.jpg

 

 

No one knows who the Deputy PM is, so let's get rid of him before it becomes obvious he's a dud and bring back the Barnababy . . .

 

 

No seriously . . .the Barnababy:

barnaby%20a_zpsvzinddlo.jpg

 

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-have-lost-their-minds-government-fuming-over-growing-push-to-topple-deputy-prime-minister-20181017-p50aax.html

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-on-the-move-turnbull-delays-return-home-and-avoids-byelection-20181017-p50a9n.html

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dirty-tricks-fake-email-sent-to-wentworth-voters-claims-kerryn-phelps-has-hiv-20181017-p50aam.html

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/malcolm-turnbull-refuses-pleas-to-support-libs-wentworth-candidate/news-story/2309a75c7c097ee6b5811d642bb74ccc

 

Video of the Deputy PM (a bloke called McCormack apparently) denying the knives are out: https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5850053670001

 

Video of the outsider gibberers claiming Sharma will win the by-election and Howard's a hero: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1052534286551638016

Video of "whatever-it-takes-even-an-independent " Richo chatting with Phelpsy about 100% renewables by 2050: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1052503463978921986

 

 

 

Meanwhile . . . Phelpsy's firming nicely. First the Melbourne Storm, now the Libs. Go you good thing . . .

Kerryn%20firming%20nicely_zpstgdgimsf.jp

 

 

To blow out from close second favouritism @ $1.90 the win yesterday to $2.40 today is portentousness personified.

Edited by Snorky

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Perhaps Turnbull actively supporting Sharma would have helped. But I don't blame him for staying out of it. Or, let's say, it's understandable. Why should he help the bloke who was implicated in knifing him remain as PM? At least he's not actively working to destroy his successor, as Abbott did.

 

Again, Snorky, I repeat: Bet responsibly!

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I suppose Malcolm is meant to do everything he can to ensure a Liberal win in Wentworth, even though he was kicked out as Liberal PM and subsequently resigned his seat forcing the by-election, instability and gnashing of teeth.

Under normal circumstances he would stay on, if he wanted to, and introduce and support his replacement for the general election next year. But he quit and ran off in a fit of pique. Very un-statesmanlike. Entirely his choice and be buggered with the consequences.

If he was wandering around with Sharma on the hustings saying such cloying things as: "Have you met Dave Sharma, he's a great guy and I fully endorse him ensuring the interests of Wentworthians are taking into account."

 

By not doing anything to support Sharma, he's giving tacit approval to ABS (anyone but Sharma). And his son Alex is really turning up the heat, telling people to now vote for Phelpsy and not Labor's whatshisname.

Many Wentworthians are angry about Malcolm going and the manner in which he was knifed and the so-called lack of reasons, but many are also jumped-up wankers, so it doesn't matter, as long as they Vote 1 Phelpsy.

As you said previously, despite the polls and local angst, it's a tall order for anyone to wrest a 17% lead back in one election, let alone rely on preferences from a rusted-on and at times eccentric bunch. Many who said they'd vote for Phelpsy when talking to pollsters, might find their hand trembling uncontrollably as they attempt to put a 1 in anything but the Liberal box, and then collapsing and being whisked away in an ambulance.

And as Johnny Howard said today in Double Pay: "If enough people register a protest vote then the seat could go to an independent and that will rob the Morrison government of its working majority, it will make the remaining months of this term of office very difficult and it will feed the view in the community that a Labor government is more likely at the next election."

You betcha Johnny.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-such-thing-as-an-unlosable-seat-howard-warns-liberals-in-wentworth-20181018-p50afa.html

While I'm hoping Kezza wins, maybe a quinella on Sharma coming in first and Phelps second would be in order. An insurance bet I'd be happy to forfeit if Phelpsy can get up.

I will be glued to SkyNews' five-hour coverage on Satdy night.

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I'm not keeping up here. Who is "Kezza" ?

 

Are you sure being glued to a five hour coverage of SkyNews will not be detrimental to your mental health?

 

In any case, a warning here: Barrabas Loins is already back on the warpath.

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Ah yes, Barrabas the old-new human headline . . .

 

Those Libs have been hammering the electorate over the last couple of days and yet about 20% have already voted early apparently. Hopefully they were majoritively Liberal voters who took out their frustration and anger as soon as the pre-poll booths opened, including a high percentage of Jewish voters prior to talk of moving the embassy arose (not that the progressive among them would have viewed that favourably, given Indonesia's still knocking at our door).

Unfortunately I can feel those rusted-on Liberals lurching back behind Sharma, mesmerised by Johnny Howard's intervention, obeying his instructions like non-thinking robots.

Let's hope there's yet another Liberal disaster today that may sway them back to Kezza (aka Dr Kerryn Phelps aka Phelpsy).

History tells us that Wentorthians are generally a loyal lot but when Malcolm toppled former Liberal member Peter King in a vicious pre-selection fight in Wentworth in 2004, Liberal supporters reacted violently, trimming young Malcolm's sails at the ballot box (see chart below). Over time, like a good pair of shoes, they got used to him and grew to adore him (blergh).

Note Labor's falling overall vote over time. Also be amazed at Malcolm's soaring popularity 2004 thru 2016 and the Greens' continuing above-average support. It was almost exciting in 2004.

malcolm%20soars_zpshndizsya.jpg

Now it's Wentworth's opportunity to tell the Liberal Party of Australia where to go. Tomorrow will be interesting.

 

A bridge too far? Maybe. But crazier things have happened (see Roosters v Storm 2018 GF shellacking/drubbing).

Edited by Snorky

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On the eve of the by-election, Greens leader Richard Di Natale has provided a late endorsement for Dr Phelps.

 

Di Natale joined former leader Bob Brown in suggesting Greens voters ignore their own party’s how-to-vote card which directs preferences to Labor.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-fundamental-shift-in-voter-sentiment-liberals-brace-for-a-ballot-box-bruising-20181019-p50au4.html

 

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Good to see some of these clips again. I was disappointed when Mark Humphries left " The Feed".

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Antony Green called it for Phelpsy at 7.18pm AEDT.

 

I called it at 6.30pm.

 

Killing it.

 

Streets awash with champers.

Not so dumb Wentworth.

History in the making.

 

Could be biggest swing ever against the Libs in one election cycle.

 

https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22844-152.htm

 

At 7.25pm:

phelpsy%2020_zpsnih8skuv.jpg

 

Kezza's getting primary votes at around the mid-30s.

Hung Parliament again.

More Champagne.

 

greeny_zpsj7kjpf2o.jpg

 

 

Onya Ant.

alex%20turnbull_zpsjp8c2elj.jpg

 

 

Onya Alex

 

Crazy Christine Abbott, Tone's sister, has just announced on SkyNews that she will be contesting pre-selection for Wentworth at the general election. Fair dinkum, we don't need another Abbott in parliament.

 

 

woooooooooooooo_zpspwg99iip.jpg

Edited by Snorky

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This is pretty awesome :). After the parade of weird and awful independents we've seen for so long, we have an LGBT woman of science entering parliament. And the government have lost their majority. All good things :)

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I still can't believe it, and neither can Richo.

 

Someone said it's a swing of 20%, biggest ever.

Seems anything can happen.

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Crikey, you wake up this morning and hear ScoMo talking about postal votes and Phelpsy being only 884 'votes' in front.

Oh dear . . . going postal over the postals would be in order if the unthinkable occurs.

 

wait%20what%20happened_zpsxwxp60z6.jpg

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wentworth-byelection-gap-between-kerryn-phelps-and-dave-sharma-narrows-in-surprise-count-update-20181021-p50azw.html

 

Still 1,266 envelopes to be opened a at 11.30am AEDT . . . and the winner is . . . ????

 

Life wasn't meant to be easy.

Back to sleep, perchance to dream.

Edited by Snorky

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